Antonelli is noted for a late release; Mercedes probably saw that coming and ordered Russell past partly for that reason. Further back, meanwhile, Hulkenberg flies past Lindblad and into the points in 10th.

Oh, and Antonelli is ordered aside, Russell's extra pace giving him a chance of making the podium. Oh, and then we cut to Hamilton spinning; he goes off the track but he returns still ninth, just 25s behind Leclerc now.

Norris leads by 12.4s, and he's surely going to win from here. Russell, meanwhile, who went on to intermediates sooner, is moving up; he's fifth, 0.8s behind Antonelli.

Antonelli comes in but does he get in Colapinto's road when he comes out? Perhaps…

Verstappen's expected in to change tyres … but he opts to stop out. Norris, though, comes in and, with his lead, will come out in front. He takes intermediates, so needs it to keep raining.

Antonelli attacks Hadjar, who closes the door well, but he's got nine more laps of this. I don't the pace to keep him at bay.

Norris has driven very nicely today, minimum fuss and maximum prejudice. I can't see Verstappen getting close with 11 laps to go.

Antonelli is closing on Hadjar, the gap down to 0.6; Norris' lead at the front is now above 10s.

Hamilton, 2.648s behind Leclerc, who's ninth, tries to get within overtaking range … and there he goes, past on the inside. Leclerc has barely featured in this race, his Ferrari not performing for him.

Hadjar is moving better than Verstappen but will he be allowed by Red Bull to attack him? You have to assume not. Norris, though, won't care, 8.2s in front.

Norris leads, from Verstappen, from Hadjar, from Russell, from Antonelli, from Piastri, from Leclerc, from Lawson, from Hamilton, from Hulkenberg.

Norris leads Verstappen by 7.3s; Antonelli now lies fifth.

Russell, now third, has Hadjar looking to attack, the gap 0.2s, and he's beaten on the inside; meantime, Antonelli comes in and Norris oozes past. He'll take some stoping from here.

Norris is taking half a second a lap out of Antonelli, the gap down to 4.7s; Verstappen is a further 7.4s behind.

Piastri pits, while Norris closes the gap on Antonelli, now 6.1s. He's moving nicely.

Now Hadjar pits and, when he comes out, Russell goes by. Norris is now up into second, 7.7s behind Antonelli, who'll have to pit shortly.

Norris pits so Hadjar leads from Antonelli … and Norris rejoins the race in fourth. He'll need a couple of lap for his tyres to get warm, whereupon the race will be decided; who's quicker, him or Verstappen?

Verstappen sets a fastest lap and is driving at 1.4s faster than Norris. It's 81s to Piastri in fourth, but he'll surely come in soon.

Norris has already put a second on his lead over Hadjar, but it's just started raining; might Verstappen's cross prove to be well-timed, his tyres nice, fresh and warm?

Verstappen emerges fifth, the gap from Norris to Hadjar 12.8s. I imagine we'll see the leader in shortly.

Yup, in comes Verstappen, the lead now 12.4s, while Russell, who's been threatening it for a while, finally takes out Lawson around the outside to move sixth.

Gosh, Norris is flying, now 11.2s ahead of Verstappen; I doubt he'll come in before Red Bull, who need to force the issue.

Let's run down the leaderboard:

1 Norris

2 Verstappen

3 Hadjar

4 Antonelli

5 Piastri

6 Lawson

7 Russell

8 Hulkenberg

9 Lindlblad

10 Leclerc

11 Alonso

12 Hamilton

Told that Norris is thinking about going to the end without aa pit, Verstapen is emphatic in his refusal. I wonder if was a ruse from the leader to try and force his pursuer to make a bad call.

Russell is now 2.8s behind Lawson, while Albon, 12th, is given a 10-second penalty for re-entering the race unsafely after a pit. Norris leads by 10.8s.

Norris continues building his lead, while Russell sets another fastest lap. Hamilton, though, is behind Norris, lapped when pitting, but he must just have the pace to unlap himself.

Russell sets a fastest lap, but it's roughly four seconds to Lawson in sixth; rather than close the gap to Norris, Verstappen sees him extend it to 10.0s.

Just when we think Hamilton is going at Hulkenberg, he pits, Norris now leading by 9.4s.

Other hand, if it rains, Verstappen has a chance of catching him, and Hadjar is told by the team to move over, his dream of a first P2 dashed by orders.

Hamilton has hit a groove, just 0.3 behind Hulkenberg in eighth – the gap was once eight seconds. Norris now leads by 8.8s, and he's moving towards victory, provided he can avoid disaster.

Alonso has a hole in his nose-tip following a clash with Bearman at the start, but he's doing alright for now; Norris' lead is up to 7.7s.

Norris is making this looks easy, the lead up to 7.4s, while Verstappen has found a bit more pace, just 1.0s behind Hadjar. Onsalaught incoming…

Alonso goes wide, off the track … and back ahead of Albon, into 11th; Norris now leads by 7s.

Things seem to have stabilised a little, Norris extending his lead, Hadjar unable to make an impression, just as Verstappen can't on him. It's then a full eight seconds to Antonelli in fourth.

Stroll, 20th, is into the pit … and once again, his Aston won't get him home, their 21st DNF of the season. Norris, meantime, extends his lead to 5.2s; Hadjar can't get close to him currently.

Verstappen has a problem with his downward force, so can't get at his teammate Hadjar, 46s behind Norris and 3.5s ahead of him.

Russell tries Hulkenberg on the outside and around a corner, where he's got more speed – on the straight, he's not finding it as easy. And past he goes, taking seventh place.

Hamilton again goes at Lindblad and he's past into ninth while, at the front, Norris is building a lead, 4.9s in front.

Russell, 0.3s off Hulkenberg, can't force his way past and into seventh, but it surely won't be long – wily though Hulkenberg is.

Now Hamilton moves back past Albon to reclaim 10th, while Leclerc has no rear-tryre temperature. He's 14th.

Norris now leads by 3.4s, with Verstappen a further 4.6s behind second-placed Hadjar. It's then 4.6s more to Antonelli, and then 10.5 to Piastri in fifth.

Also struggling is Hamilton, dropping further behind Lindblad, who has a go at Albon … and moves by into ninth! Antonelli, told to reset, says he can't turn on the left corners, but his team can't find anything amiss in the data.

Norris enjoys the clean air in front of him, moving 3.2 ahead of Hadjar while Verstappen attacks Antonelli … and breezes by! The champ is really struggling to control his car.

Let's run down the leaderboard:

1 Norris

2 Hadjar

3 Antonelli

4 Verstappen

5 Lawson

6 Piastri

7 Hulkenberg

8 Russell

9 Albon

10 Lindblad

11 Hamilton

Hadjar has never finished higher than third, but it's Verstappen running fastest; he sets a fastest lap and is just a second off Antonelli.

Antonelli is in all sorts whereas Hadjar is in flow … and he too gets past. Looking at a recording of the spin, he's got nae grip, and Verstappen can see him now; good luck, old mate.

Antonelli extends his lead, tyres warm … BUT HE SPINS! He'd just complained about suspension but his team assured him it was tyre temperature … and Norris goes past into P1! The gap is 3.3s!

Norris, with tyres a lap warmer than Antonelli, cuts the leads to 0.483s. Can he get while the going's good? Not thus far.

Now Antonelli pits but will he come out ahead of Norris? Yes he will, the lad down to two 1.1s. This is a different race now.

The other teams will have noticed Hamilton's pace there, and a slew of stops ensure, Norris, Russell, Hadjar, Lawson Piastri and Hulkenberg all go in … with Russell spinning! He almost nails his wing, but loses time, coming out 10th.

In 13th, Alonso is giving Leclerc plenty, then he moves up a spot when Albon pits. Hamilton, meantime, is moving much more smoothly now, setting the fastest time for the final sector.

Norris closes the gap behind Antonelli to 6.9s, then Hamilton, who's wanted to pit for several laps, is ordered in; he goes to softs and comes out last … oh but Sainz is in there too. Bottas, by the way, is out of the race.

We're getting towards the first round of stops; will anyone try slicks from here until the end? There's a fair bit of shpritz kicking up, but the lack of grip might be a problem.

The top seven are well clear now, Hulkenberg 7.3s behind Piastri in seventh. Antonelli now leads Norris by 8.2s.

Antonelli has stepped on it, now 8.0s in front of Norris – he's been serene away from the drama. Russell is third, Hadjar fourth, Verstappen fifth; I quite fancy him for a podium here, he's attacking this race like a madman.

Hadjar looked up for this from the start and he blitzes Lawson down the inside, moving into fourth; Verstappen goes past too.

The two Ferraris dogfight, Hamilton on the inside, Leclerc on the right … and it's Hamilton struggling, easily passed. His car isn't doing what he wants, I don't think, because that was too easy given how brilliant a driver he is.

Piastri thinks Hulkenberg leaves him the inside, attacks … and past he goes. Antonelli leads by 4.7s.

And now Russell passes Lawson, moving into fourth, while Versatappen passes Hulkenberg; Hamilton is told by his team to allow Bearman past, rather than face a 10-second penalty, so he does.